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Jefferies analyst Peter Misek predicts that Apple won't launch a larger iPhone 6 until mid-2014 in a new research note.

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We see three possible bottlenecks for the iPhone that could contribute to lower yields (and hence higher costs) and/or a delayed launch.

● App processor production at 20nm. Apple’s current iPhone app processor is on 32nm. For the iPhone 6 we think Apple will likely skip over 28nm and go to 20nm to facilitate adding more cores (4 or even 8). While TSMC is targeting a 2014 ramp in its 20nm production we think that issues like double patterning could make it a more complicated transition than the 28nm ramp, which had its own substantial ramp and yield issues.

● Display shifting from in-cell LCD to on-cell OLED or IGZO. We think in- cell is having difficulty ramping to 4.8”, which is making Apple look at switching to on-cell (a different integrated touchscreen technology) and OLED (despite Apple’s suppliers being well behind Samsung in their OLED capabilities) or IGZO.

● Revamped OS. We think Apple plans to re-architect iOS to utilize more cores and better compete with Samsung. Also, we believe the way iOS interoperates with iCloud, gestures controls, and advertising will be substantially upgraded.
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Misek predicts Apple will release an iPhone 5S and a cheaper iPhone in July/July and will update the iPad in September/October alongside an iTV.

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